Indonesia LQ-45 Top Gainers

Global Crisis of 2011 Will be Worse Than 2008

2011-09-21T08:29:00.003+07:00

There is a view of the fundamental differences between the current global crisis with the crisis in 2008 have different weights. In 2008, the crisis occurred because the collapse of world financial companies, but this time the bankrupt the state.

The current crisis will be very heavy compared to 2008. Because most major problem was that the crisis countries, used to be a financial sector crisis that began with Lehman Brothers, the company could shut down all, but if my country can not be closed!

As the pattern of previous crises will occur the spread of the financial sector to the real sector. Indonesia certainly affected the demand side of export markets, especially from Europe.

We can see our rupiah weakened. Cause of the crisis in Greece was because he could not pay and default. The IMF and the Euro is not helped. How are we if he defaults. If Greece hit, the banks of France was hit, straight down the price.

The most potent solution to the current crisis and the future is to control the domestic market. In addition, Indonesia's infrastructure continues to push the economy so that stretching may be higher.

Stock Market Crash of 2011

2011-08-06T13:14:00.003+07:00

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham of GMO LLC is predicting a “Stock Market Crash” and suggested that investors should consider selling their stocks around July 2011. Going back to 1960, the first 7 months of the third year of a presidential cycle (like 2011) produced inflation-adjusted returns of 20 percent for the 48-month presidential cycles. Meanwhile, the remaining 41 months of the cycle returned only 1 percent.

Therefore, Grantham suggested that investors should “Sell in May” of Year 3 and go away for 41 months, a variation of the Wall Street adage of “Sell in May and Go Away” — going by Grantham’s 48-month cycle pattern, the sell date would be July instead of May.

In addition to this historic tendency, he listed four more reasons to get out around this time period.

1. There is still the risk of the Middle East and North Africa unrest spreading to important oil producers like Saudi Arabia.
2. Japan’s earthquake-tsunami disaster can potentially have a prolonged impact on the global production of certain small production parts for which Japan holds a near “Monopoly” in.
3. The Federal Reserve’s program of QE2 is ending on June 30, 2011. Prominent investors like PIMCO’s Bill Gross are so bearish on this development that he is now short Treasuries. If Treasuries do decline and yields go up, it could spell disaster for the stock market and economy.
4. The relentless rise in resource prices is beginning to act as an economic drag.

Previously, Grantham thought the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy could carry the stock market until at least October 2011. However, due to the combination of the factors listed above, he has turned bearish. He said “now is not the time to float along with the Fed, but to fight it.”

Stock Market Crash of 2008

2011-08-05T11:14:00.000+07:00

Only time will tell the full story of the stock market crash of 2008, but on Monday October 6, the stock market would start a weeklong decline in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall 1,874 points or 18.1%. While the exact cause of this crash may differ from those of 1929 and 1987, they share one common element - they all began in October.

In this article, we're going to provide a brief summary of the market movements between October 1, 2008 and October 10, 2008. We'll also discuss some of the events leading up to this market collapse. Finally, we're going to talk about human nature, and how investor reaction can often provide the fuel necessary for a volatile market.

October 2008 Stock Market Crash

Although history may state the actual market crash occurred on Monday, October 6, 2008, the market experienced eight consecutive trading days of negative movement starting on October 1, 2008. The table below shows the decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from October 1st through October 10th.

Date	DJIA Close	Point Change	% Change
1-Oct-08	10,831.07	(19.59)	-0.18%
2-Oct-08	10,482.85	(348.22)	-3.22%
3-Oct-08	10,325.38	(157.47)	-1.50%
6-Oct-08	9,955.50	(369.88)	-3.58%
7-Oct-08	9,447.11	(508.39)	-5.11%
8-Oct-08	9,258.10	(189.01)	-2.00%
9-Oct-08	8,579.19	(678.91)	-7.33%
10-Oct-08	8,451.19	(128.00)	-1.49%

During these eight trading days, the DJIA would drop a total of 2,399.47 points or 22.11%. The market would rebound sharply on Monday October 13, and rise 936.42 points, only to drop 733.08 points on Wednesday of that same week.

October was shaping up to be a volatile month, as investors began reacting to the worrisome credit market news that started back in March 2008.

The Credit Market Collapse

During the years preceding the credit market collapse, the sub-prime mortgage industry thrived. Individuals with poor credit were given access to loans they really couldn't afford. But as long as home prices were on the rise, these poor lending practices were simply ignored.

Lenders could afford to write bad loans as long as the homeowner's equity in their house outpaced their desire for new debt. If borrowers were to fail to pay back their loans, lenders could always foreclose on the home, since it was an asset with ever-increasing value.

The credit market's problems began when housing prices started to fall in 2007. Homeowners frequently found themselves with underwater loans. They owed lenders more than the home was worth. When faced with these facts, homeowners no longer feared the threat of foreclosure. Even more disturbing was the fact that some families abandoned their homes; choosing to start their lives anew elsewhere rather than worry about paying off their debts.

Bear Stearns' Collapse

As mortgage defaults started to rise, the national economy started to falter, and fear crept into the credit markets. Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve, the destabilization of the credit market quickly spread to the national financial system. Lenders began to fear borrowers could no longer repay their loans.

Bear Stearns was the first investment bank to fall victim to this fear. Investors, as well as other financial institutions, began to worry that money borrowed by Bear Stearns would not be repaid, and they began pulling money back from Bear Stearns.

On March 13, 2008, Bear Stearns advised the Federal Reserve that its liquidity position had deteriorated, and that it would file for bankruptcy unless alternative sources of funds were made available. Two days later, Bear Stearns agreed to merge with JP Morgan Chase in a deal that wiped out 90% of Bear Stearns' market value.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Fall

By the year 2008, the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA or Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC or Freddie Mac) either owned or guaranteed nearly $6 trillion in mortgage loans. With a mortgage crisis in the United States, these two corporations quickly began showing signs of financial distress.

On September 7, 2008, the governing authority over these two agencies, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, or FHFA, placed both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under their conservatorship. In addition, the U.S. Treasury department began supplying funds to help stabilize these companies, raising the national debt ceiling by $800 billion in the process.

Financial Instability Grows

On September 14, 2008, Bank of America agreed to acquire Merrill Lynch for $50 billion, as a second wave of volatility began in the financial community. On September 15, 2008, concerns over the ability of financial institutions to cover their exposure in both the sub-prime loan market as well as credit default swaps led to further market instability. That same day, Lehman Brothers would be forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

On September 16, 2008, American International Group would fall victim to a liquidity crisis, as AIG's shares lost 95% of their value and the company reported a $13.2 billion loss in just the first six months of the year. By September 22, 2008, AIG was removed from the DJIA, replaced by Kraft Foods.

The Crash of 2008 Begins

Although the market arguably started its crash back on October 1, 2008, the Black Week began on October 6th and lasted five trading sessions. During that week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall 1,874 points or 18.1%. In that same week, the S&P 500 would fall more than 20%.

After a brief uptick in mid-October, the market would begin a second decline later in that same month. On October 24th, the Dow would fall 312.30 points to 8,378.95. This was its lowest level since April 25, 2003. The S&P 500 would fall 31.24 to 876.77, its lowest level since April 11, 2003. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite would fall 51.88 points to 1,552.03, its lowest level since May 23, 2003.

Stock Market Sell-Offs

Many market theorists believe that stock market crashes feed on themselves. Once destabilization of the stock market occurs, this incident may be followed by a series of events that trigger an even larger decline in the market. One of these events has to do with investor fear, and the other has to do with stop losses.

Investor Fear and Market Losses

Investors may reach a "loss threshold" where they are unwilling to continue to risk additional losses. Unfortunately, selling stocks well into a bear market is a good way to lock in losses, and this type of panic selling often backfires as an effective strategy to combat such losses in a down market.

Stop Loss Orders

Investors can place stop loss orders in advance with brokers. These orders programmatically sell a security when it reaches a certain price. The intention of a stop loss order is to limit the potential decline of a security's value. During the onset of a market crash, stop loss orders can lead to a sell-off of stocks, and an even further decline in stock prices. As the market gets flooded with sell orders (from stop loss orders), the prices of the underlying stocks begin to drop rapidly as the supply of stocks overwhelms their demand.

Stock Market Crash Coming for Stocks by 09-2011

2011-08-01T11:44:00.000+07:00

The first quarter comes to a close today with major averages at or near multi-year highs. Expect “substantial” further gains for stocks before a “major top” occurs in late summer, says noted forecaster Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and The Dent Method.

The good news, for those long, is Dent predicts the Dow will trade as high as 13,200 by mid-summer and the S&P 500 as high as 1430, or more-than 7% above current levels. The bad news is then we could see another “Major Crash“, Dent says, forecasting the Dow could trade as low as 3300 in a worst-case scenario. “Bubbles go back to where they started or a little lower,” he says. “The stock market bubble started at (Dow) 3800 in late 1994.”

While Dent predicts the Dow’s crash will play out over several years, he sees clear and present danger in gold, silver, oil and other commodities. “All investors should lighten up on or sell oil, silver, and gold as the U.S. dollar looks like it has bottomed and should rise ahead,” he writes in the March issue of HS Dent Forecast.

In the accompanying video, Dent further explains his thinking for why commodities will stumble ahead of stocks, which is the opposite of what happened in 2007-08. In sum, he believes efforts by global central bankers to fight inflation — with the notable exception of the Fed — will hurt growth in emerging markets as well as demand for many commodities.

As for the Fed, they are “checkmated,” Dent says, suggesting the Ben Bernanke & Co. are damned if they do QE3 — because the bond market will freak out — and damned if they don’t — because the economy and financial markets are so dependent on easy money.

Stay tuned for additional segments to hear Dent’s views on the economy, housing and the deflationary pressures detailed in his latest book The Great Depression Ahead, a bookend to his 1992 best-seller The Great Boom Ahead.

Indosiar Karya Media Tbk

2011-07-08T17:19:00.018+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date

Recommendation

Candlestick

5-Aug-11

SELL

Long Black Candlestick

29-Jul-11

SELL - IF

Bearish Harami

22-Jul-11

HOLD

Long White Candlestick

INDOSIAR KARYA MEDIA TBK ( IDKM.JK )

ABOUT

PT Indosiar Karya Media Tbk is an Indonesia-based company engaged in the provision of

television advertisement services in Jakarta. The Company provides administration, management and consultancy services. It is also engaged in trading of technical equipment, machinery and spare parts, as well as acting as a supplier, distributor, agency and representative of other companies in the domestic market and abroad. As of December 31, 2009, the Company’s subsidiaries were PT Indosiar Bandung, PT Indosiar Surabaya, PT Indosiar Medan, PT Indosiar Padang, PT Indosiar Pekanbaru, PT Indosiar Jambi, PT Indosiar Palembang, PT Indosiar Bengkulu, PT Indosiar Lampung, PT Indosiar Ambon, PT Indosiar Jayapura, PT Indosiar Dewata, PT Indosiar Manado, PT Indosiar Pontianak, PT Indosiar Semarang, PT Indosiar Balikpapan, PT Indosiar Lontara, PT Indosiar Banjarmasin, PT Indosiar Kupang, PT Indosiar Lintas Yogya, PT Indosiar Batam and PT Indosiar Pangkalpinang.

Analyst recommendations

Date

Price

Recommendation

% Change

8-Jul-11

950

BUY

Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk

2011-07-01T19:30:00.004+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date	Recommendation	Candlestick
5-Aug-11	SELL	Long Black Candlestick
29-Jul-11	SELL - IF	Bearish Harami
22-Jul-11	HOLD	White Opening Marubozu

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk ( ROTI.JK )

ABOUT

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk is an Indonesia-based company engaged in the production of bread. The Company is marketing its products under the brand names Sari Roti, Boti and Sari

Cake. The company has seven kinds of Sari Roti bread and 22 varieties of sweet bread. Its Sari Cake products are Chiffon Pandan, Chocolate Cup Cake and Pandan Cup Cake. The Company distributes its products in hypermakert, supermarket, minimarket and through traditional network in Jabodetabek, West Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Lampung and Bali, Indonesia. The Company’s two factories are located in Cikarang and East Java, Indonesia.

Analyst recommendations:

Date	Price	Recommendation	% Change
01-Jul-11	2.700	BUY

Astra International Tbk

2011-06-24T19:47:00.006+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date	Recommendation	Candlestick
5-Aug-11	SELL	Long Black Candlestick
29-Jul-11	SELL - IF	Bearish Harami
22-Jul-11	HOLD	White Candlestick

PT Astra International Tbk
( ASII.JK )

ABOUT

PT Astra International Tbk is an Indonesia-based automotive manufacturer. It comprises five

business divisions: Automotive, Financial Services, Heavy Equipment and Mining, Agribusiness, and Information Technology (IT). The Company is engaged in an integrated automotive business with operations ranging from automotive and component manufacturing, distribution and after sales services throughout Indonesia, car rental, used car sales, consumer finance for automotive products, insurance and infrastructure. It has partnerships with several automotive entities, such as Toyota, Honda, Daihatsu, Isuzu, BMW, Peugeot, Lexus and Nissan Diesel.

Analyst recommendations:

Date	Price	Recommendation	% Change
24-Jun-11	58.300	BUY

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk

2011-05-06T19:32:00.003+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date

Recommendation

Candlestick

29-Jul-11

SELL

Black Candlestick

22-Jul-11

SELL IF

Bearish Dark Cloud Cover

15-Jul-11

HOLD

White Candlestick

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk ( JPFA.JK )

ABOUT

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk is an Indonesia-based agro-food company. The Company has eight divisions, namely animal feeds, which involves the production of animal feeds; commercial farm, which involves operation of farms and slaughter house; consumer products, which involves production of meat nuggets and beverages; aquaculture, which involves shrimp feed production and shrimp hatchery and farming; day old chick, which involves breeding of day old chicks; general trading, and others, which involves real estate, plantations and vaccine production. The Company’s manufacturing plants are located in East Java, West Java, South Sulawesi, West Sumatera and South Kalimantan, Indonesia.

Analyst recommendations:

Date	Price	Recommendation	% Change
06-May-11	3.600	BUY

Arwana Citramulia Tbk

2011-04-08T19:52:00.003+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date	Recommendation	Candlestick
15-Jul-11	SELL	Short Black Candlestick
8-Jul-11	SELL IF	Bearish Harami
1-Jul-11	HOLD	White Candlestick

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk ( ARNA.JK )

ABOUT

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk is an Indonesia-based company engaged in manufacturing and marketing of ceramic tiles. The Company's subsidiaries include PT Arwana Nuansakeramik, PT Sinar Karya Duta Abadi and PT Primagraha Keramindo, which are engaged in the manufacture and distribution of ceramic products. All products are sold under a brand name of Arwana Ceramic Tiles. The Company’s production facilities are located in Jatiuwung, Tangerang and Banten, Indonesia.

Analyst recommendations:

Date	Price	Recommendation	% Change
08-Apr-11	265	BUY

Polychem Indonesia Tbk

2011-03-25T17:35:00.010+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date

Recommendation

Candlestick

5-Aug-11

SELL

Long Black Candlestick

29-Jul-11

SELL - IF

Bearish Harami

22-Jul-11

HOLD

White Candlestick

PT Polychem Indonesia Tbk ( ADMG.JK )

ABOUT

PT Polychem Indonesia Tbk is an Indonesia-based manufacturing company. The Company manufactures polyester chips, polyester filaments, engineering plastic, engineering resin, ethylene glycol, polyester staple fiber and petrochemical. It also engaged in knitting, weaving and textile manufacturing, as well as fishing net yarn manufacturing. The ethylene glycol plants produce one main product, mono-ethylene glycol (MEG), and two by-products, di-ethylene glycol (DEG) and tri-ethylene glycol (TEG). The Company marketed its products domestically and internationally, including Asia, the United States, Europe, Australia and Africa. It subsidiaries include PT Filamendo Sakti, PT Sentra Sintetikajaya and GTPI Netherlands B.V.

Analyst recommendations

Date	Price	Recommendation	% Change
25-Mar-11	188	BUY

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk

2011-03-11T19:25:00.007+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date	Recommendation	Candlestick
29-Jul-11	HOLD	High Wave
22-Jul-11	HOLD	White Opening Marubozu
15-Jul-11	HOLD	Bearish Deliberation

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk ( CPIN.JK )

ABOUT

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk is an Indonesia-based manufacturer. The Company is engaged in the production of cattle, poultry, fish and shrimp feed, as well as processed chicken meat, poultry and other animal husbandry. The Company's subsidiaries include PT Charoen Pokphand Jaya Farm, which is a poultry farm company; PT Poly Packaging Industry, which is a plastic packaging manufacturer; PT Feprotama Pertiwi, which produces and distributes animal feed; PT Primafood International, which is a trading company, and PT Vista Grain, which produces and distributes animal feed. The Company has branch offices in Sidoarjo, Medan, Tangerang, Balaraja, Serang, Lampung, Semarang, Surabaya, Makassar and Denpasar.

Analyst recommendations:

Date	Price	Recommendation	% Change
11-Mar-11	1.500	BUY

Ciputra Development Tbk

2011-02-25T19:16:00.006+07:00

Weekly Commentary :

Date	Recommendation	Candlestick
29-Jul-11	HOLD	White Candlestick
22-Jul-11	HOLD	White Closing Marubozu
15-Jul-11	HOLD	White Candlestick

PT Ciputra Development Tbk ( CTRA.JK )

ABOUT

PT Ciputra Development Tbk is an Indonesia-based property and real estate company. It is engaged in the development, construction and sale of housing complexes, office buildings, commercial centers, industrial complexes and their supporting facilities, including restaurants, entertainment centers, golf courts and family clubs. Its residential and township projects include CitraGarden City, CitraRaya, CitraIndah, Bukit Palma, CitraHarmoni, CitraGarden, The Taman Dayu, Citra Grand City, CitraLand City, Citra BukitIndah and Citra I, II and V housing complexes in Jakarta, while its commercial properties include Ciputra Mall & Hotel, Somerset Grand Citra, Ciputra World and Ciputra Golf. The Company is a member of Ciputra Group.

Analyst recommendations:

Date	Price	Recommendation	% Change
25-Feb-11	295	BUY

Stock Market Crash of 1987

2010-10-19T10:54:00.001+07:00

Stock Market Crash of 1987

The Stock Market Crash of 1987 is a good follow-up to our article on the Stock Market Crash of 1929. Some historians argue that there were similarities between the two crashes, and we tend to agree. We also think that there were some distinct differences between the two crashes. That being said, let's take a look at what was happening in the stock market 25 years ago.

The Stock Market before October 1987

In the first half of 1987, the U.S. dollar experienced a steep decline in value relative to other world currencies. This made U.S. goods and services less expensive, and resulted in increased exports. The increase in exports provided U.S. companies with a strong earnings outlook, and the commensurate rise in stock market valuations.

In fact, most of 1987 was marked with one stock market record after the other. There had been a great deal of corporate restructuring in the years proceeding 1987, and American companies were promising strong future earnings growth. International investors also took notice of the improvements in the U.S. market outlook, and the rate of foreign investment doubled between 1986 and 1987, driving stock prices upward. By August, the Dow Jones Industrials was up over 800 points, which translated into a 41% rise in value.

In September 1987, the economic concerns over the weak dollar and rising interest rates started making investors nervous. Volatility in the market increased dramatically as both good and bad economic information was in the news. A record single day point gain for the Dow was set on September 22nd, only to be followed by the largest single day point loss on October 6th. During the three days of October 14th through 16th, the Dow fell over 260 points and the S&P 500 declined 10%. The volatility of the market created a great deal of anxiety over the weekend. Investors were left wondering what would happen on Monday.

October 19, 1987 - Black Monday

On Monday October 19, 1987, the stock market plummeted right from the opening bell. No one was looking to buy stocks that day, and the problems in the stock market soon spread to the futures market. The technology advances in the stock exchanges began to kick in, and these computerized systems accelerated the decline.

Program trading was a new tool, and was introduced to take advantage of rapid market movements. On Black Monday, program trading moved millions of shares, and clients as well as investment houses were left wondering what their actual market positions were like for most of the day.

Portfolio insurance professionals also contributed to the stock market crash of 1987 through their electronic trading systems. As these computerized systems analyzed the event of the days prior to Black Monday, they flooded the market with sell orders early on Monday.

Portfolio insurance and program trading were intended to help investors take advantage of short-term market fluctuations. Unfortunately, these two systems, along with a lack of investor confidence, drove the Dow Jones down 508 points. This was a 22% decline in value in just a single day. Investors in the stock market would lose over $500 billion on Black Monday.

What Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1987?

In the days between October 14 and October 19, 1987, major indexes of market valuation in the United States dropped 30 percent or more. On October 19, 1987, a date that subsequently became known as"Black Monday," the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its total value. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. This was the greatest loss Wall Street had ever suffered on a single day.1

According to Facts on File, an authoritative source of current-events information for professional research and education, the 1987 crash"marked the end of a five-year 'bull' market that had seen the Dow rise from 776 points in August 1982 to a high of 2,722.42 points in August 1987." Unlike what hapopened in 1929, however, the market rallied immediately after the crash, posting a record one-day gain of 102.27 the very next day and 186.64 points on Thursday October 22. It took only two years for the Dow to recover completely; by September of 1989, the market had regained all of the value it had lost in the '87 crash.2

Many feared that the crash would trigger a recession. Instead, the fallout from the crash turned out to be surprisingly small. This phenomenon was due, in part, to the intervention of the Federal Reserve. According to Facts on File,"The worst economic losses occurred on Wall Street itself, where 15,000 jobs were lost in the financial industry."3

A number of explanations have been offered as to the cause of the crash, although none may be said to have been the sole determinant. Among these are computer trading and derivative securities, illiquidity, trade and budget deficits, and overvaluation. Below we have quoted representative analyses.

CAUSE #1: DERIVATIVE SECURITIES

Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis of Dallas, Texas:

Initial blame for the 1987 crash centered on the interplay between stock markets and index options and futures markets. In the former people buy actual shares of stock; in the latter they are only purchasing rights to buy or sell stocks at particular prices. Thus options and futures are known as derivatives, because their value derives from changes in stock prices even though no actual shares are owned. The Brady Commission [also known as the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms, which was appointed to investigate the causes of the crash], concluded that the failure of stock markets and derivatives markets to operate in sync was the major factor behind the crash.

CAUSE #2: COMPUTER TRADING

In searching for the cause of the crash, many analysts blame the use of computer trading (also known as program trading) by large institutional investing companies. In program trading, computers were programmed to automatically order large stock trades when certain market trends prevailed. However, studies show that during the 1987 U.S. Crash, other stock markets which did not use program trading also crashed, some with losses even more severe than the U.S. market.

CAUSE #3: ILLIQUIDITY

During the Crash, trading mechanisms in financial markets were not able to deal with such a large flow of sell orders. Many common stocks in the New York Stock Exchange were not traded until late in the morning of October 19 because the specialists could not find enough buyers to purchase the amount of stocks that sellers wanted to get rid of at certain prices. As a result, trading was terminated in many listed stocks. This insufficient liquidity may have had a significant effect on the size of the price drop, since investors had overestimated the amount of liquidity. However, negative news to investors about the liquidity of stock, option and futures markets cannot explain why so many people decided to sell stock at the same time.

While structural problems within markets may have played a role in the magnitude of the market crash, they could not have caused it. That would require some action outside the market that caused traders to dramatically lower their estimates of stock market values. The main culprit here seems to have been legislation that passed the House Ways & Means Committee on October 15 eliminating the deductibility of interest on debt used for corporate takeovers.

Two economists from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Mark Mitchell and Jeffry Netter, published a study in 1989 concluding that the anti-takeover legislation did trigger the crash. They note that as the legislation began to move through Congress, the market reacted almost instantaneously to news of its progress. Between Tuesday, October 13, when the legislation was first introduced, and Friday, October 16, when the market closed for the weekend, stock prices fell more than 10 percent -- the largest 3-day drop in almost 50 years. In addition, those stocks that led the market downward were precisely those most affected by the legislation. [Ultimately, the legislation was stripped of the provisions that concerned the stock market before being enacted into law.]4

CAUSE #4: U.S. TRADE AND BUDGET DEFICITS

Bruce Bartlett:

Website, University of Melbourne:

Another important trigger in the market crash was the announcement of a large U.S. trade deficit on October 14, which led Treasury Secretary James Baker to suggest the need for a fall in the dollar on foreign exchange markets. Fears of a lower dollar led foreigners to pull out of dollar-denominated assets, causing a sharp rise in interest rates.

One belief is that the large trade and budget deficits during the third quarter of 1987 might have led investors into thinking that these deficits would cause a fall of the U.S. stocks compared with foreign securities (this was the largest U.S. trade deficit since 1960). However, if the large U.S. budget deficit was the cause, why did stock markets in other countries crash as well? Presumably if unexpected changes in the trade deficit were bad news for one country, it would be good news for its trading partner.

CAUSE #5: INVESTING IN BONDS AS AN ATTRACTIVE ALTERNATIVE

Long-term bond yields that had started 1987 at 7.6% climbed to approximately 10% [the summer before the crash]. This offered a lucrative alternative to stocks for investors looking for yield.

CAUSE #6: OVERVALUATION

Many analysts agree that stock prices were overvalued in September, 1987. Price/Earning ratio and Price/Dividend ratios were too high [Historically, the P/E ratio is about 15 to 1; in October 1987 the P/E for the S&P 500 had risen to about 20 to 1]. Does that imply that overvaluation caused the 1987 Crash? While these ratios were at historically high levels, similar Price/Earning and Price/Dividends values had been seen for most of the 1960-72 period. Since no crash happened during that period, we can assume that overvaluation did not trigger crashes every time.

THE LEGACY OF THE '87 CRASH

What the 1987 crash ultimately accomplished was to teach politicians that markets heed their words and actions carefully, reacting immediately when threatened. Thus the crash initiated a new era of market discipline on bad economic policy.

Dirgantara Eyes Big Share of MRO Market

2010-08-24T17:22:00.002+07:00

PT Dirgantara Indonesia said it wants 30 percent of the national market for aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) after it was appointed an authorized provider of spare parts and MRO service forRussian-made Sukhoi Superjets, says the state aerospace company ’s chief.

Dirgantara president director Budi Santoso said in Jakarta on Monday that the appointment would allow the Bandung-based airplane manufacturer to handle MRO bids for all variants of the Russian-made aircraft.

“Currently, we have secured just 5 percent of the MRO market share by servicing 100 aircraft per year, but with the appointment we hope we can increase our market share to 30 percent,” he said.

Private airline company PT Kartika Airlines, which recently signed a US$951 million contract to buy 30 Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ-100) airplanes, will be Dirgantara’s first client for the maintenance of the Russian-made medium-overhaul passenger planes.

Budi said that Kartika had named Dirgantara to handle the MRO works for its new fleet of Superjets.

Financial Crash of 1929

2010-07-25T17:34:00.001+07:00

The economy had been growing robustly for most of the so-called Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age as innovations such as radio, automobiles, aviation, telephone and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies who had pioneered these advances, like Radio Corporation of America (RCA) and General Motors, saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market especially with the use of leverage through margin debt. On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another twenty five years. By the summer of 1929, it was clear that the economy was contracting and the stock market went through a series of unsettling price declines. These declines fed investor anxiety and events soon came to a head on October 24 (known as Black Thursday) and October 29 (known as Black Tuesday).

On Black Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.

Black Tuesday was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.

By the end of the week of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into the worst economic crisis of modern times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932.

The Financial Panic of 1873

2010-07-24T17:27:00.002+07:00

The Panic of 1873 has been described as "the first truly international crisis." The optimism that had been driving booming stock prices in central Europe had reached a fever pitch, and fears of a bubble culminated in a panic in Vienna beginning in April 1873. The collapse of the Vienna Stock Exchange began on May 8, 1873 and continued until May 10, when the exchange was closed; when it was reopened three days later, the panic seemed to have faded, and appeared confined to Austria-Hungary. Financial panic arrived in America only months later on Black Thursday, September 18, 1873 after the failure of the banking house of Jay Cooke and Company over the Northern Pacific Railway. The Northern Pacific railway had been given 40 million acres of public land in the West and Jay Cooke sought $100,000,000 in capital for the company; the bank failed when the bond issue proved unsalable, and was shortly followed by several other major banks. The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days on September 20.

The financial contagion then returned to Europe, provoking a second panic in Vienna and further failures in continental Europe before receding. France, which had been experiencing deflation in the years preceding the crash, was spared financial calamity for the moment, as was Britain.

Others have argued the depression was rooted in the 1870 Franco-Prussian War that hurt the French economy and, under the Treaty of Frankfurt (1871), forced that country to make large war reparations payments to Germany. The primary cause of the price depression in the United States was the tight monetary policy that the U.S. followed to get back to the gold standard after the Civil War. The U.S. was taking money out of circulation to achieve this goal, therefore, there was less available money to facilitate trade. Because of the monetary policy described above the price of silver started to fall causing considerable losses of asset values, however, by most accounts, after 1879 production was growing, thus further putting downward pressure on prices due to increased industrial productivity, trade and competition.

In America the speculative nature of financing due to both the greenback which was specie issued to pay for the US Civil War and rampant fraud in the building of the Union Pacific Railway up to 1869 culminated in the Credit Mobilier panic. Railway overbuilding and weak markets collapsed the bubble in 1873. Both the Union Pacific and the Northern Pacific lines were center in the collapse; another railway bubble was the UK railway mania.

Because of the Panic of 1873, governments depegged their currencies, to save money. The demonetization of silver by European and North American governments in the early 1870s was certainly a contributing factor. The Coinage Act of 1873 in America was met with great opposition by farmers and miners, as silver was seen as more of a monetary benefit to rural areas than to banks in big cities. In addition, there were Americans who advocated the continuance of government-issued fiat money (United States Notes) to avoid deflation and promote exports. The western US states were outraged--Nevada, Colorado, and Idaho were huge silver producers with productive mines, and for a few years mining abated. The resumption of the US government buying silver was enacted in 1890 with the Sherman Silver Purchase Act.

Monetarists believe that the 1873 depression was caused by shortages of gold that undermined the gold standard, and that the 1848 California Gold Rush, 1886 Witwatersrand Gold Rush in South Africa and the 1898-99 Klondike Gold Rush helped alleviate such crises. Other analyses have pointed to developmental surges (see Kondratiev wave), theorizing that the Second Industrial Revolution was causing large shifts in the economies of many states, imposing transition costs, which may also have played a role in causing the depression.

The most important event of President Grant's second term in office was the severe financial depression by which it was marked. The era of high prices and business activity which had followed the war yielded its legitimate effect in an abnormal growth of the spirit of speculation. The inevitable consequence followed. In 1873 came a financial crash that carried ruin far and wide throughout the country. It began on October 1, in the disastrous failure of the banking firm of Jay Cooke & Co., of Philadelphia, the financiers of the Northern Pacific Railroad. Failure after failure succeeded, panic spread through the whole community, and the country was thrown into a condition resembling that of 1837, but more disastrous from the fact that much greater wealth was affected. Years passed before business regained its normal proportions. A process of contraction set in, the natural change fron high war-prices to low peace-prices, and it was not till 1878 that the timidity of capital was fully overcome and business once more began to thrive.

Industry and trade had flourished beyond precedent during the first years after the war. The high protective tariff contributed its share to the general rush of enterprise. In 1873 railroad mileage had doubled itself since 1860, and this was a prolific cause of rash speculation. While business was expanding the currency was contracting. Paper money had depreciated, and the conditions foreboded a crash. The Jay Cooke firm stood at the head of the great banking concerns. This house had handled most of the government loans during the war, and as already stated, were financing the doubtful Northern Pacific scheme. When this firm broke, strong institutions tottered and thousands of people in every rank of life were stricken with absolute ruin or sufferings that were none the less poignant for being outside the category of direct financial failures. The blow was felt for years in impaired credit, pressure for payment of dues, the lowering of securities and general dread of even safe enterprises. United States bonds fell from five to ten per cent. Savings were exhausted and many banks went under. Labor felt the cruel stroke for long after in the shutting down of factories and the half-time employment. The country was in a state of alarm and disgust at the bitter consequences of questionable acts in Congress, by the Administration, and in the realm of finance, and its indignant resolve to change things for the better was expressed in the heated contest which replaced the Grant administration with that of President Hayes, in 1876.

Return to The Great Republic by the Master Historians (Vol 3)

IDX On The Road To 3.000

2010-07-13T11:49:00.002+07:00

We believe that the total solar eclipse (11/7) and new moon (12/7) will impact a market peak. Therefore, the Jakarta Composite Index (IDX) is possibly to continue advances to a higher level. From the pattern analysis, we see that IDX is moving in wave 5:5 since there was no an overlap section, and then its indicates a trend rather than a correction. The next high probability target of the IDX is around 3,020-3,060 on 14-15 Jul or 22 Jul 10, just 3 - 4 days from the total solar eclipse event, also Venus Trine Pluto on 14 July 10. This financial astrological event might lift the IDX to a better value.

Traders and investors could consider to buy finance, automotive, cement and consumer stocks. BUMI JK is also attractive with short-term target Rp2,150. Meanwhile BMRI JK has opportunity to reaches Rp6,500 then Rp6,750.

Have a good trading day.

Bakrie Group Deposits in Bank Capital Indonesia

2010-07-13T11:47:00.000+07:00

Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) will investigate cash and time deposits worth Rp9.07 trillion saved by Bakrie Group in PT Bank Capital Indonesia Tbk (BACA).

"We will invite Bank Capital and management of Bakrie Group in relation to Bakrie Group deposits in Bank Capital," said IDX Director Eddy Sugito said as reported by Detikfinance today.

In March 2010 financial statement, Bank Capital booked Rp3.75 trillion of total asset and managed third parties deposit and saving worth Rp2.69 trillion.

The fact is 7 publicly listed of Bakrie Group have put cash and time deposits worth Rp9.07 trillion in Bank Capital. The question is where is the remaining Rp6.38 trillion?

Based on March 2010 financial reports, each company under Bakrie Group has reported cash and time deposits in Bank Capital. Here is the detail:

PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) has put time deposit worth Rp3.76 trillion in Bank Capital.

PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk (UNSP) has put time deposit worth Rp3.50 trillion in Bank Capital.

PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG) has put time deposit worth Rp1.14 trillion in Bank Capital.

PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) has also put cash and time deposit worth Rp255.95 billion in Bank Capital.

PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) has put cash and time deposit worth Rp210.87 billion in Bank Capital.

PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA) has put cash worth US$21.05 million in Bank Capital.

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) has put cash of US$1.09 million in Bank Capital.

Bank Capital is owned by Danny Nugroho (21.70%), Mount-8 HoldGS offshore Ltd (19.86%), Inigo Investment Ltd (15.44%), Zen Gem Investment Ltd (14.34%), TFI (X)-TRA Ordinary I (11.86%), and public holders (16.80%).

Market Flat in Lead-up to Inflation Rate Announcement

2010-06-30T13:11:00.002+07:00

Summary. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is most likely to remain flat in the 2,900-2,950 range in the lead-up to the inflation rate announcement. We also look forward to minor corrections that may appear over the next 1-2 days. We do not see a big threat from the inflation issue. Buy on weakness.

Inflation rate and market movements. Most Indonesian stocks did not make Analyst impressive gains yesterday. The market was flat on low volume. It is highly likely that the market is waiting for Indonesia’s inflation rate announcement on 1 July 10. As such, we expect the market to remain flat or to consolidate until that day.

Wave analysis of inflation rate. Based on historical data for 2009-10, the inflation rate moved in an impulsive wave downtrend rally until it hit the bottom in Dec 09, concluding as wave 5. We expect to see three wave corrections after the completion of wave 5. In fact, the inflation rate is making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a corrective rally or a new bull trend. We conclude that the inflation rate in Indonesia will tend to move stronger with a typical target rate of 5.7% (wave 3 or C) this year.

Negative correlation between JCI and inflation rate. We have found a negative correlation of 0.87 between JCI and Indonesia’s inflation rate between Jan 09 and Jun 10. Therefore, when the inflation rate rises, we expect a short- term correction in JCI. Buy on weakness.

The full moon impact on JCI. The full moon (26/6) impact remains strong. We will soon find support for blue chips in the wake of this event. Thus, traders should take advantage by buying blue chips when they are undergoing a correction.

Good short-term trading stocks. We see more opportunities in BUMI JK, ASII JK, BMRI JK, UNVR JK and INDF JK.

Summary: The IDX could move in an impulsive wave 3 of 5 with a potential target price of Rp3,020. It should not fall below 2,873, as is the typical characteristic of an impulsive wave 3. Buy on weakness.

Summary: Based on our observation, BMRI JK is moving in a potential broadening pattern. Currently, it is likely to be forming wave E. However, we believe Rp5,400 will act as a short-term support for short-term trading. Buy at Rp5,400 with protective stop loss at Rp5,200 and take profit target at Rp5,800. As an alternative trading plan, we could buy BMRI IJ when it breaks Rp6,100. This strategy assumes the continuation of the impulsive wave rally. Thus, Rp6,150 is our buying price with stop loss at Rp 5,800 and take profit target at Rp6,800.

The coming Great Inflation, real or imagined

2009-12-31T10:19:00.003+07:00

By: Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

A historic economic crisis has left Americans with plenty of things to worry about. But is inflation one of them? And is there a risk that fretting over higher prices may actually bring them about?

The answers to these questions will help define the timing of the Federal Reserve's pullback from an unprecedented level of monetary stimulus, deployed to combat the worst financial panic since the Great Depression.

In justifying its pledge to leave interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future, the Fed takes comfort in inflation expectations, which policymakers deem comfortably restrained.

On the surface, that appears true. The most recent Reuters/University of Michigan consumer survey showed a 0.2 percentage point decline in expected inflation one-year out, to 2.5 percent. Market-based barometers have fluttered higher, though not alarmingly so.

Yet beneath the weak economic backdrop keeping prices in check, economists and consumers are increasingly uneasy about the prospect of a continuous loss of purchasing power -- the very definition of inflation.

"We have the most potentially inflationary policy I have ever observed in a developed country," said Alan Meltzer, a Fed historian and professor of political economy at the Carnegie Mellon Tepper School of Business in Pittsburgh.

According to widely used economic models, the way consumers perceive the prospect of future inflation has clear implications for prices themselves. Once higher costs are taken for granted, they are more easily tolerated.

Several indicators are already hinting at that possibility.

The price of gold, often viewed as a hedge against inflation, has set record after record, peaking above $1,200 an ounce earlier this month before retreating to below $1,100. A recent JPMorgan survey of clients found that 61 percent expected U.S. inflation to be "above target" between 2011 and 2014.

Another consumer confidence survey, published by The Conference Board, showed Americans expect prices to climb a troubling 5.1 percent over the next 12 months.

And Google Trends, a websearch database, shows a sharp spike in the number of U.S. users looking up the word "hyperinflation" in late 2008 and early 2009.

"There is a real risk that inflation expectations will rise above a certain threshold that suggests a loss of credibility of the Fed," said Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor now at Macroeconomic Advisers in Washington, DC.

MIND OVER MATTERS

That may seem surprising considering the world has faced a crippling financial crisis that many economists warned might lead to deflation. But it makes sense in the context of the extraordinary measures taken to halt the meltdown.

Experts who have studied bouts of inflation, most common in poor or developing countries, say the makings of an inflationary psychology are already in place in the United States. It begins, they say, when unfathomably large figures are bandied about as if they were mere change.

A cascading series of government bailouts certainly fits into that category. The Treasury spent nearly $800 billion on a stimulus package that has helped ease the pace of job losses but not yet begun to reverse them. The Fed committed to buy more than $1.7 trillion in Treasury and mortgage bonds and expanded credit in the banking system to over $2.2 trillion.

"There is an unprecedented amount of latent inflation represented by the $2 trillion monetary base," said Michael Pento, senior market strategist at Delta Global Advisors. "Unless the Fed can sell those holdings and raise interest rates in a timely manner, intractable inflation will be in our future."

ENTER THE SLACKERS

Another camp of economists say all the hand-wringing is overdone. They point to the labor market, in its worst shape since the 1980s, as a sure sign that the economy is sufficiently weak to keep price pressures at bay.

Japan provides the most obvious model for how such "slack" can affect prices. As bubbles popped in the housing and stock markets, the Japanese economy was stuck in a deflationary rut for the better part of two decades, despite heavy government spending.

During America's last run-in with inflation in the 1970s, wages were a key channel for price increases. Stronger unions meant workers could demand cost-of-living increases to keep up with the ever-rising consumer price index. With that dynamic largely absent today, say skeptics, inflation fears are misplaced.

So far, the hard figures corroborate their view. Consumer prices rose just 1.8 percent in the year through November, and were up 1.7 percent, excluding food and energy, well beneath the recent yearly average.

Such tame readings notwithstanding, anxiety about the longer-term outlook is rising and has been reinforced by the resilience of energy costs in the face of a global recession.

"We will emerge from the crisis with an excess money supply because, despite their independence, central bankers are still feeling the pressure from finance ministers to allow slightly higher inflation in order to be able to service large public debts more easily," said Jorg Kramer, chief economist at Commerzbank.

Source: REUTERS
Editing by: Padraic Cassidy

Wall St ends a tad higher; Dow, Nasdaq at '09 highs

2009-12-30T10:26:00.001+07:00

By: Caroline Valetkevitch
NEW YORK

U.S. stocks ended a smidgen higher in very light trading on Wednesday as a stronger-than-expected report on Midwest U.S. business activity was offset by investors taking profits in some of the year's better performers.
Still, the Dow and the Nasdaq eked out fresh highs for the year. The Standard & Poor's benchmark index is up 25 percent for 2009, putting it on track for its best year since 2003.

Most of the advance is the result of the nine-month rally the market has seen as investors turned bullish on prospects for the economic recovery. The S&P 500 is up a whopping 66.5 percent since its March 9 closing low.

On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer surged to a four-year high, topping forecasts, on a recovery in employment and an acceleration in new orders.

DuPont (DD.N), a Dow component, gained 0.5 percent to close at $34.05 on the New York Stock Exchange.

On the down side, Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), up 59.3 percent for the year, was among the biggest drags on both the Dow and the Nasdaq. The stock slipped 1.4 percent to $30.96 on Nasdaq.

"We've had such a nice run up over the last two weeks. I think the best-case scenario is probably baked into stock prices at this point," said Angel Mata, managing director of listed equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets in Baltimore.

Oracle Corp (ORCL.O), up 41 percent for 2009, was down 0.3 percent at $24.93.

In its run higher this year, the market has been underpinned by strength in the technology and materials sectors on expectations the economic recovery will spur capital spending and increase demand for natural resources. The S&P information technology sector .GSPT is up 62 percent since the start of the year, while the S&P materials index .GSPM is up 47 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 3.10 points, or 0.03 percent, to end at 10,548.51 on Wednesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX edged up just 0.22 of a point, or 0.02 percent, to finish at 1,126.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 2.88 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 2,291.28.

Wednesday's tiny gains followed a modest decline in Tuesday's session, when stocks snapped a six-day streak of gains.

Investors appeared unfazed by a brief evacuation of the Nasdaq Times Square, New York, offices amid an investigation of a suspicious vehicle near its building. Nasdaq said trading was not affected.

While investors looked to the data for signs a recovery is taking hold, some traders have moved to safer assets like the dollar to lock in profits after a strong 2009.

The U.S. dollar hit a three-month high against the yen on year-end flows in thin trade and the belief that the U.S. economy is on the road to recovery.

Semiconductor stocks gained after Kaufman Bros upgraded both Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL.O) and Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) to "buy," saying they could benefit from improved demand for personal computers.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor index .SOXX gained 1.5 percent. Marvell added 2.8 percent to $20.83 and Nvidia shot up 3.6 percent to $18.67, both in Nasdaq trading.

On the New York Stock Exchange, only 644.39 million shares changed hands, well below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion. On the Nasdaq, about 1.33 billion shares traded, also sharply below last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a ratio of 8 to 7.

On the Nasdaq, the opposite trend prevailed, with 14 stocks rising for every 13 that fell.

Source: REUTERS
Additional reporting by: Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Behind the Great Stock Rally of 2009

2009-11-29T10:29:00.000+07:00

By Roben Farzad and Tara Kalwarski

"There may not be much to the rally beyond herd-like momentum, but that could keep the stock market going even into next year"

The U.S. economy is coping with alarmingly high double-digit unemployment, a widening commercial real estate bust, and over-indebted consumers. Few think the economic recovery now under way will be a spectacular one in 2010. So why has the stock market surprised skeptics by powering higher in recent weeks? One explanation being bandied about by equity strategists and portfolio managers is that the stock market may be in the midst of a momentum-driven trading phenomenon known as a "melt up" that has precious little to do with economic fundamentals.

A melt up is a rapid and mass rush by investors into an asset class after a belated realization by market players that worthwhile gains are to be had there. Part herd mentality, part self-fulfilling prophecy, this trading behavior is amplified by the age-old tendency of fund managers and retail investors to chase returns in the hopes of making up for lost time and lagging performance. The U.S. stock market is enjoying an explosive rally that has humbled plenty of bears, who have been predicting a deep correction for several months now. Instead, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has soared 63% since its Mar. 9 low and is up 22% for 2009.

Where's the Support?
That has left plenty of money pros rethinking their market outlook. "We've spent a considerable time of late assessing the conditions for a melt up," admits Bernie Schaeffer, chief executive of Schaeffer's Investment Research. He says he is baffled at how the market's rally this year has essentially been devoid of improved investor sentiment and big inflows into domestic equity funds. While bond funds have taken in nearly $330 billion so far this year, U.S. stock funds have lost almost $28 billion. A handful of big institutional investors and hedge funds, rather than retail investors, have been responsible for the lion's share of buying this year.

In fact, overall there is far greater investor enthusiasm for asset classes other than U.S. equities. Emerging markets, which have outperformed their American counterpart, are being deluged with fresh money. The red-hot junk bond market is also attracting heavy investor interest. Even gold coins are being hoarded as the yellow metal keeps breaking records.

Mom-and-pop investors in U.S. stocks, meanwhile, are only slightly less bearish than they were in March, when the market hit a 12½-year low. Yet that could change, given the impressive performance this year in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index (NDAQ), up about 38% in 2009. "If 2010 starts out strong as well," says Schaeffer, "the fear of missing out on stock returns could prove irresistible." Not coincidentally, January happens to be high season for personal finance introspection—with outsized attention paid to the past year's performance column and the coming year's retirement account funding.

A bigger and more pronounced money shift into stocks early next year could be also induced by diminishing returns in many segments of the bond market. There is every indication that investors are scraping the bottom of the fixed-income barrel. Three-month Treasury bills, that redoubt of ultraliquidity and safety, are yielding just 0.03%. A negative yield, where people actually pay the government to safeguard their money, could be in the offing. On the other end of the curve, the 10-year Treasury note yields 3.3%, a rate that skeptics argue does not begin to buffer holders from the real risk of inflation a few years out.

The Federal Reserve doesn't just slash short-term interest rates to help banks; it does so to make sitting on cash painful enough to force investors back into the risk-reward economy. Which might not be that difficult an undertaking if there weren't so much idle cash out there—a remnant of last year's panic and subsequent spate of bank failures and bailouts, the likes of which made "return of money" outprioritize "return on money."

Pressure to Get into the Stock Market
After nearly touching $4 trillion in January, money fund assets were last clocked at $3.339 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute. Barring another crisis, the hunt for yield will prompt more drawdowns from this sizable balance and perhaps shift more funds into stocks. "What I'm expecting is people being forced to get in," says Peter Grandich, a veteran investor newsletter editor. "The vast majority of money is managed by professionals who are gauged and measured on performance, a lot of which is judged by the quarter," he adds. "In 2008 people yelled at them for not getting them out; in 2009, people are getting yelled at for not getting in. The pressure to finally commit will be on, whether managers like it not."

Of course, melt ups—like so many trends that involve investor psychology and behavioral economics—are, by definition, almost always unpredictable. Who is to say that investors haven't been rendered so skittish by the repeated heartbreaks from U.S. stocks that they would make their bets on companies in China, Brazil, and beyond before getting reacquainted with Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE), and Microsoft (MSFT)? Or that the full-fledged return of the individual investor, should it come, to the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq wouldn't actually be a red flag for the smart money to bail?

Indeed, the last time financial pros talked of the prospect of a melt up was in early 2007, when buyout shops were snapping up companies left and right and hedge funds were putting everything else in play. Money was cheap; risk seemed overrated. So much so, in fact, that the prevailing worry then was that investors would realize there simply wasn't enough stock to go around to accommodate the flood of buy orders that were supposed to prompt a renaissance for the American stock market. It all ended in tears, of course. Wall Street cratered and took the world economy down with it.

Few are predicting a reprise of the U.S. and global market collapse of 2008 that destroyed trillions in wealth around the world. Yet until this rally attracts a broader base of investors and is supported by robust economic fundamentals instead of short-term trading strategies, it is hard to see a multiyear bull market taking hold.

SOURCE: BUSINESSWEEK

BusinessWeek Senior Writer Farzad covers Wall Street and international finance. Kalwarski is Numbers department editor at BusinessWeek.

How Stock Market Works - A Jokes

2009-11-28T18:27:00.003+07:00

Once upon a time in a village in India, a man appeared and announced to the
villagers that he would buy monkeys at $10 each.

The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went into the
forest and started catching them. The man very gentlemanly bought thousands
of monkeys at $10 each,but as supply started to diminish, the villagers
slowed down and eventually stopped their efforts.

The man then announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the energy
and efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon
the supply diminished even further, and people started going back to their
farms.

The offer was then increased to $25 each, but the supply of monkeys became
so little that it was a almost a miracle to even spot a monkey, let alone
catch one.

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50 ! However, since he
had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would transact on his
behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant assembled the villagers and told
them : " Look at all these monkeys in the big cages that the man has
collected. I will sell them to you at $35 each, and when the man returns
from the city, you can in turn sell them to him at $50 each. Deal or no deal
? "

The excited villagers, smelling a quick-profit killer opportunity,
immediately rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys. Then
they never saw the man nor his assistant again, and there were just monkeys
everywhere!

Indonesia Ambition to become The First Country Producing LNG From The CBM

2009-11-25T10:57:00.000+07:00

Indonesia ambition to become the first country to develop a liquefied natural gas (Liquid Natural Gas / LNG) originating from Coal Bed Methane (CBM).

"We are currently working so that Indonesia could become the first producer of CBM to LNG," said Director General of Oil and Gas, Evita Herawati Legowo at the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources Building, Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan, Jakarta, Thursday (25/11/2009).

LNG plans are derived CBM, continued Evita, will be sent to all corners of the country to meet domestic gas demand. LNG Shipping will be done by using small boats.

"This proves that not all LNG for export," he said.

Evita said Indonesia's CBM reserves are very large reaching 453.3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) CBM basin with a total of about 11 fruits. Up to August 2009, the contract already signed CBM approximately 15 CBM Cooperation Contract (KKS).

"Next week a new CBM 5 contracts will be signed," he said.

With starting dieksplorasinya working areas of this CBM, CBM production estimates Evita will continue to increase from year to year. In 2015, CBM production reached 500 mmscfd, in the year 2020 increased to 900 mmscfd and the CBM production in 2025 reached 1500 mmscfd.

"We estimate the average production per well of about 250 mmscfd," he said.

When asked when the development of LNG from the CBM can be realized, Evita can not tell.

"Well, then if delivered bustling. We again racing with Australia," said Evita.

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 25 November 2009

2009-11-25T07:36:00.000+07:00

Trimegah Securities
Growth of new home sales in the United States of 10.1% was not able to support stock index asia. This is due to fears of monetary tightening policy of China government, which could slow the economic recovery of the Asian region. Today, the index is projected consolidation of the 2450-2500 range. Market participants should mewapadai index decreased to below 2450 support.

Kresna Graha Securites
Index has the potential to continue weakening after failing to maintain 2480 levels of support in stock trading yesterday. Index will try to test the new support point at the 2423 level. Position Bollinger Bands are on the range top and moving down toward the stochastic 73.1, thus supporting the index decrease. Index is expected to move in the range 2454-20491. Today, investors can look at stocks JSMR, INDF and UNTR.

LQ45 Analysis 25 November 2009: Index Will Move With a Limited Range

2009-11-25T07:00:00.000+07:00

Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) Wednesday (25/11) is estimated to still depressed. Index may move above the 2460 support level. During this support can be maintained, the index likely to penetrate the psychological level of 2500. However, if the 2460 level to penetrate, the index may fall to 2433 levels.

Optima Securities analyst said Iksan Binarto, index upward trend toward the 2490-2500 level was not changed. The support level is at 2450

However, some stocks could still be a choice like EARTH, ADRO, TLKM, FREN and MNCN.

Ocean Fund Securities analyst Willy Sanjaya predict, JCI movement will still be influenced some negative sentiment. However, during the index was at 2440 levels, the domestic defense will be strong.

"The decline JCI only a small reaction, no effect to the trade today," he told on Tuesday (24/11) yesterday. According to him, the shock of the JCI yesterday, comes from the collapse of regional markets, especially the Hang Seng and Shanghai after China's government is asking banks to limit credit running.

BUMI, How Low Can You Go

2009-11-24T18:20:00.010+07:00

BUMI yesterday is still in position uptrend since early November, then today's OFFICIAL broken uptrend.

Date	PRICE				PIVOT	RESISTANT			SUPPORT
Date	Open	High	Low	Close	POINT	I	2	3	I	2	3
11/23/2009	2,825	2,875	2,725	2,750	2,783	2,842	2,933	2,921	2,692	2,633	2,542

BUMI also make False Break 50 MA alarming enough. If BUMI Day 2600 is broken then it could begin to exit first. BUMI current position a little danger. If BUMI can return to the top again in 2800 the SAFE. BEAR BULL so his position is 2800.

Given the BUMI has a considerable influence on the Stock Exchange, the heart - the heart is also to be affected by BEI for EARTHQUAKE effect, hehe

LQ45 Analysis 24 November 2009: Index Moves Sideways

2009-11-24T07:57:00.000+07:00

Composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) tend to move horizontally (sideways) in trading today. Requires strong sentiment index to determine the direction of further movement.

"Index is still moving sideways in a narrow range," said analyst Dean Reliance Asset Management Hamzah told the newspaper Investor Daily in Jakarta, Monday (23/11).

He said, this potential is reflected in the volatility of trading in the last five days. In general, the index is still in strong trends (bullish). Index has the potential to test 2500 resistance level. At the close yesterday, the index corrected thin 5.95 points or 0.24% to 2481.42 position.

Dean explained, the position of the index has reached a high level, so investors may be cautious in trading. It makes the market tends to speculate.

The movement of the index will be influenced by the response to the recommendation of the president linked the case of 8 teams led off the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) Chandra M Hamzah and Seed Rianto Samad. Meanwhile, the global sentiment index penodorong not exist.

Today, according to Dean, the index will move in the range of support 2450 and resistance 2495. Mover stock index came from the mining sector, infrastructure, and the Astra group Bakrie group.

In trading yesterday, the transaction value of the index last reached Rp 4.41 trillion, with a volume of 14.86 million lots. As many as 69 stocks gained, 106 lower, 69 closed stagnant, and 226 shares of no transaction. Foreign investors recorded a sale of shares (net selling) around Rp 66.84 billion.

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 24 November 2009

2009-11-24T07:09:00.000+07:00

Trimegah Securities
Strong resistance composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) at the level at 2500 purchasing saturated area (overbought), so a consideration in the transaction market. In addition, investors also consider the transaction data home sales figures in the United States (U.S.). Data U.S. home sales numbers are expected to be a catalyst in addition to domestic sentiment. Index is projected to move in the 2450-2500 consolidation area.

Optima Securities
Index limited to moving mixed yesterday after trading had strengthened in early trade. Attenuation index yesterday due to selling pressure on stocks driven seed stock EARTH. Today, the index will move in the range of support 2462 and resistance 2494. Consolidation movement may continue for the index this week.

Reliance Securities
Index is projected to move strengthened as a result of positive sentiment on the positive sentiment from the global and regional exchanges. Index will move in 2462-2505 range. Investors can look at stocks PGAS, EARTH, ADRO and INDF. In trading yesterday, the index corrected thin 5.95 points or 0.24% to 2481.42 position.

Kresna Graha Sekurindo
Index tends toward the consolidation of support on the 2480 level. Bollinger bands Posisis index was at the upper limit and the stochastic oscillator starts fell to 78.5 from 86.8. Indicators that show the possibility of continued decline in the index in the range of 2468-2495 levels. Shares JSMR recommended among other things, INDF, UNTR.

SOURCE: INVESTOR INDONESIA

Foreign Companies Interested in Buying PT Humpuss Intermoda Transport Tbk

2009-11-23T09:02:00.001+07:00

Ciputra Development Towards USD 650

RATES shares of PT Ciputra Development Tbk (Ctra) rumored to be raised to the level of USD 650 in the short term. Investor Daily source revealed, a number of brokers have received orders from certain parties to hoist Ctra prices, as the deadline for the offer of the company in the near future.

Foreigners vie Share Humpuss
A number of foreign companies reportedly interested in buying 6.63% stake in deposits (treasury stock) PT Humpuss Intermoda Transport Tbk (HITS). In fact, the newspaper Investor Daily said the source, there is one state-owned company that also cited the company interested in buying shares. HITS prices likely to reach the level of USD 600-700, because the company would get fresh funds for expansion and addition of new fleet.

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 23 November 2009

2009-11-23T06:48:00.002+07:00

Trimegah Securities

News adding ownership Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) on Multi Capital able to support JCI on Friday trading last week amid quiet the domestic and regional sentiments that are in negative territory. During their stay in the down trend resistance middle term, JCI potentially retest the highest level this year. However, for trading today, JCI is still expected to consolidate in the range of 2450-2506

Kresna Graha Sekurindo
JCI likely to continue rising after a successful 2480 through resistance points at the close of trading last weekend. MACD indicator position was in the positive area, ie 11.0 and RSI is at the midpoint 60.3, which will become the factor of increase in JCI. Today, the index is expected to move in 2467-2498 range. Recommended stocks include EARTH, PGAS, and JSMR.

LQ45 Analysis 23 November 2009: Positive Sentiment Index

2009-11-23T06:07:00.002+07:00

Composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) has the potential to strengthen in early trade this week. The positive sentiment in the country is expected to encourage the strengthening of the index.

"Index was able to continue to strengthen resistance to further limit the level of 2500," Capital market analysts said Willy Sanjaya told Investor Daily in Jakarta, Sunday (22/11).

He explained that the rupiah is stable under $ 9300 per U.S. dollar sentiment will be positive for the index. Market participants are also waiting for the 100-day performance-Boediono SBY Government, especially the ministers in the economic field.

In addition, the response team president of the conclusions about the problems the Commission 8, today, is expected to alleviate the problem of law enforcement institutions. Thus, the situation was able to maintain political stability and direction of investment.

Technically, Willy said, the index also still have enough room to continue strengthening.

Interim Dividend For INCO Australian dollar 0.011

2009-11-20T12:37:00.003+07:00

PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbk (INCO) in 2009 an interim dividend of 0.01107 Australian dollars per share. Dividends will be paid to shareholders on December 29, 2009.

"Dividends will be paid on December 29, 2009 to shareholders whose names are recorded in the Register of Shareholders on December 14, 2009," said Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Secretary of INCO Indra Ginting, in a written statement received Legal, in Jakarta, Friday (20 / 11/2009).

He explained, Indonesia shareholders will receive dividends in the rupiah currency whose value is equal to the amount of dividends paid in U.S. dollars based on the exchange rate set by Bank Indonesia on December 14, 2009. Foreign shareholders will receive dividends in USD.

The decision to pay interim dividend for a total of 0.01107 Australian dollars per share made after considering the company's performance during the first nine months of 2009 and the company's financial position is a good time.

Source: OKEZONE

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 20 November 2009

2009-11-20T08:07:00.002+07:00

Trimegah Securities
Index will consolidate today at the range of 2440-2490. Failure through resistance index above the 2482 trading yesterday on the possibility of making medium-term down trend kuat.Meski more so, investors need to look at unemployment data released United States last night, because this could be a catalyst for stock movement in the domestic market.

Kresna Graha Sekurindo
Index tends to consolidate until there is strong sentiment index increased support. Technical, the continued weakening of the potential index remained open today, after yesterday's index failed to penetrate the resistance point above 2480. Stochastic indicator also shows the movement of the index down from the previous level of 93.2 to 85.6. Today, the index will move in 2454-2487 range. Investors can look at the stock JSMR, PGAS, and ANTM.

Elite Erdhika Securities
Possibility of moving the index varies (mixed) in the 2425-2525 range. Index decreased more open since yesterday closed lower by 15.44 points or 0.66%. Index decrease due to profit taking action. Even so, investors can look at the stock BMRI, BBNI, LSIP and KLBF.

SOURCE: INVESTOR INDONESIA

LQ45 Analysis 20 November 2009: Possibly Profit Taking

2009-11-20T07:00:00.001+07:00

Composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) will continue weakening due to the action took profit (profit taking). Leading stocks that have been saturated bought (overbought) could trigger a weakening of the index this weekend.

"Level the index is too high, so the opportunities for profit taking action the greater share," said Dongsuh Securities analyst Ryan Suwarno Ariyadi to Investor Daily in Jakarta, Thursday (19/11).

Ryan said the increase in the index that occurred in a week already formed gap (gap), so that the necessary correction to close the gap. At the close of trading yesterday, Corrected index 15.44 points, or 0.62% to 2468.79.

Besides the possibility of profit taking hit the action, according to him, the index will move to monitor the regional market sentiment, such as unemployment data United States (U.S.) which was released last night.

According to Ryan, the index will test support levels of 2426 and resistance 2484.

Resume:
BREAK HIGH (8): BTEL JSMR MLBI MYOR RAJA TLKM TURI UNVR

Inverted patterning JSMR HEAND AND Shoulder. Usually it if pole Inverted HEAND AND Shoulder will form a pattern similar to the above pattern, but dropped the most in there; was the middle. While the above pattern, the triangle's third pertamd in a triangle while in the middle is not too deep.
BTEL actually pretty good position too've still break 2 month high, the target 156, 165.

DEWA Rights Issue USD 600 Billion, Buy Newmont

2009-11-19T21:18:00.002+07:00

Ownership of PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) at PT Multi Capital increased from 5% to 99% more than the acquisition of shares pascatransaksi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (nnt) worth U.S. $ 391 million.

Multi Capital bought 10% stake divestment nnt 2006-2007 period. Menstransfer investment company funds to foreign shareholders account nnt, namely Newmont Indonesia Limited (NIL) and Nusa Tenggara Mining Corporation (NTMC). Transfer done Bumi Resources.

Bumi Resources for involvement in a stock acquisition transactions nnt, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) asked companies under the Bakrie Group banner was given an official explanation to the public.

In the openness of information submitted to the Stock Exchange, Thursday (19/11), management of the Earth revealed, the company has facilitated transactions Compete PT Multi Region (MDB).

"In this transaction, the company is not acting as a direct party, let alone the party responsible for facilitating the MDB obligations as the buyer," said Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Dileep Srivastava, Bumi Resources.

Multi Capital is the partner company PT Maju Competitive Region (DMB), a company formed three regional governments in NTB, the NTB provincial government, the West Sumbawa Regency, and Sumbawa regency. Along with DMB, Multi MDB Capital formed a consortium, which execute the purchase of shares and divestment NIL NTMC in nnt.

Dileep Srivastava revealed, based on information obtained from the Multi-Earth Management Capital, the parties involved in the contract of sale is NIL and NTMC or Newmont as the seller. "The MDB acts as a buyer," he said.

However, Dileep did not explain further about the source of acquisition funding nnt. "We will meet the provisions of Rule IV BEI No. 3 IE of Information Delivery Obligations, if any information or other material facts," he asserted.

As confirmed Investor Daily, Dileep argued, it is not obliged to inform the authorities about the source of funds stock acquisition ditarnsfer nnt the Earth on behalf of Multi Capital.

IDX Company Valuation Director Eddy Sugito who contacted the newspaper Investor Daily explains, it will ask more questions related to the management of the Earth such disclosure.

"But we have to discuss again with the company's internal team assessment of what will be asked. I have not read the details. If the information is not deemed sufficient, we would ask for further explanation, "said Eddy told Investor Daily.

He added that written information is needed today more than meets the Earth management. "You see, the information must be immediately communicated to the public. Therefore, we are not going to call the management of the Earth, "he said.

Darma Henwa Rights Issue
Meanwhile, another company of Bakrie Group, PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA), plans to issue new shares (rights issue) worth up to U.S. $ 60-65 million or around Rp 600 billion. The Company was preparing a statement of registration documents will be submitted to Bapepam-LK on November 25, 2009.

According to the Corporate Secretary Muhammad Darma Henwa Baskoro, the company will issue approximately 4-6 billion in new stock units (about 25,6-38,4%), when calculated from the total shares listed on the Stock Exchange of 15.6 billion units as of July 2009 .

"This is all new notifications, new details will be known when submit to Bapepam-LK. The ratio of new shares and the calculation time we will also reveal on November 25, 2009, "said he told Investor Daily.

Baskoro explained, Darma Henwa will use most of the rights issue funds to pay off long-term debt to a financial institution. Total long-term debt Darma Henwa recorded at the end of 2008 financial statements of about U.S. $ 82.39 million. "The remaining funds of the rights issue will be used for working capital," he explained.

Rights issue, said Baskoro, new possibilities held in January 2010. Before that, the company will ask for shareholder approval. Per quarter III-2009, Darma Henwa recorded net profit of U.S. $ 221.3 thousand, dropped 93.62% compared to same period last year of U.S. $ 3.45 million.

Source: INVESTORINDONESIA

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 19 November 2009

2009-11-19T09:44:00.003+07:00

Trimegah Securities
Composite stock price index (JCI) the possibility of consolidation in the range 2460-2500. Stachastic indicator shows memasuku index overbought area and resistance down to medium term, following the action took profit concerns (profit taking).
This pattern makes a number of investors chose to be careful in the transaction. However, the increase in trading volume last few days can be a positive signal for the index.

Bhakti Securities
Index will move horizontally with a strong tendency toward 2500 levels. The range of movement of the index at the level of 2450-2500. In trading yesterday, the index managed to close higher by 10 points after the positive sentiments of the shares of Bakrie group.

SOURCE: INVESTOR INDONESIA

LQ45 Analysis 19 November 2009: Strengthening Potential Index Limited

2009-11-19T06:54:00.002+07:00

Strengthening the composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) tend to be limited today. In trading yesterday, the index climbed 10.40 points (0.42%) to 2484.23.

"Index is likely to continue to strengthen, although limited for the rally in the last few days. Index movers will come from the shares of Bakrie group, "Citi analysts said Hendri Effendi pacific securities to the Investor Daily in Jakarta, Wednesday (18/11).

He said, in a technical, the index remained above the moving average (MA), thus strengthening opportunities remain open. The stochastic oscillator indicator also shows the index in the saturated area buy (overbought).

If the level is pierced, then going to the 2530 index. The index support level at 2450.

Optima Securities analyst Ikhsan Binarto said the index is still continuing bullish phase, which is supported by bluechips stock. "Index likely to continue strengthening the upper band to the 2500 level by 2460 support," he said.

RESUME:
BREAK HIGH (8): BTEL JSMR MLBI MYOR RAJA TLKM TURI UNVR
DOJI (13): AALI BMTR BUMI BWPT ELSA ENRG FREN INDF INKP LPKR MNCN SMRA TLKM
CLOSE HIGH (2): MLBI SMRA
CLOSE LOW (14): BDMN BISI BYAN CTRA DOID ELTY HEXA INAI INDY INKP ISAT PTBA TLKM UNTR
WHITE MARUBOZU (1): MLBI
BLACK MARUBOZU (7) : BISI BYAN CTRA DOID HEXA INDY PTBA

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 18 November 2009

2009-11-18T08:16:00.003+07:00

Trimegah Securities
Market participants tend to perform the action took profit (profit taking) today, so that the composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) tend to consolidate in the range 2490-2440. Investors began to be careful dealing with market sentiment, following a long rally the index during the last two weeks. This long rally of perhaps trends index fell in the medium term.

Bumiputera Capital Indonesia
Index prone profit taking after traded rose 5.11 points (0.21%) to 2473.79 in trading yesterday. Requires strong sentiment index from the dama and abroad to support the strengthening of the index to the front. However, market players are still able to implement strategies to Speculative buy winning stocks, such as BBRI, BBCA, JSMR and INDF.

Panin Securities
Index likely to move horizontally (sideways) for mining and plantation stocks tend to move the fluctuations due to the weakening trend of United States dollars. In addition, the trend reversal in the short term the index will not happen. Index will move to the level of support 2451 and resistance 2480. In trading yesterday, the index managed to close positive, although the index hit by profit taking. Action took profit shares EARTH profit taking triggered an index on two-day session.

Kresna Graha Sekurindo
Potential index fell for the continued actions of investors took profit. Profit taking caused the index has risen in five days in a row. Position in Bollinger Bands and Stochastic upper limit in the area 91.3 oversold levels, so the decline in the index more open. Today, the index is projected to move in the range of 2.46-2.487 and investors can look at the movement of stock JSMR, ANTM, ASII.

LQ45 Analysis 18 November 2009: Index Possibly Profit Taking

2009-11-18T07:00:00.001+07:00

Composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) prone action took profit (profit taking) today. Therefore, the potential for strengthening the index began to follow the direction of movement is limited regionally.

"Index-prone profit taking action after five consecutive days have strengthened," said analyst Bumiputera Capital Indonesia Rahardian to Investor Daily Setyasmoro in Jakarta, Tuesday (17/11).

He said the corrections required to create a healthy movement of the index after rising in the last few days. In addition, the positive sentiment index support from inside and outside the country began to slow. Index also requires a new catalyst to continue the movement up to the front.

Rahardian added, the economic data from within and outside the country that can sustain relative index does not exist. Therefore, the transaction will be the focus of investor shares to the regional exchanges and the movement of world commodity prices.

According to him, candlestick indicators form of spinning top which means that the index could move in both directions. When viewed from the movement of a few days earlier, the index vulnerable to the possibility of profit taking.

Index will move to limit the first support 2460 and if the index will be penetrated into a strong support level in 2445. Meanwhile, the upper limit on the movement of resistance index in the first 2485 and second 2500.

In trading yesterday, the index close higher thin 5.11 points (0.20%) to 2473.79. Stock transaction value reached USD 4.34 trillion, with a volume of 97.46 million lots. Foreign investors net purchases print (net buying) shares worth Rp 380 billion.

The index of Asian bourses negative move. Hang Seng Index fell 29.83 (0.13%) to 22,914.15, Nikkei 225 weakened 61.25 points (0.63%) to 9,729,93, and the Straits Times corrected 16.39 points (0.59%) a 2767.46

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 17 November 2009

2009-11-17T08:17:00.002+07:00

Trimegah Securities
Market participants need to be aware the possibility of the action took profit (profit taking), following the rally composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) has lasted long enough. Index is expected to move in 2440-2482 range. Improving regional and global positive impact on the index yesterday. Index close higher 41.87 points (1.72%) to 2468.67.

Optima Securities
Strengthening the index as many as 41 points (1.72%) to 2468 in yesterday's trading stock is supported by the strengthening BMRI, ASII, PGAS, and EARTH. A total transaction value of 30% was contributed by BEI shares rose EARTH after 6% to USD 2600 per unit. Index is projected to continue strengthening this day, given the MACD & MA has a pattern of golden cross. Investors can accumulate and hold a stock until the uptrend began saturated. Index will move in 2440-2490 range.

Kresna Graha Sekurindo
Index likely rose after yesterday broke through the 2423 resistance point. The movement of the cutting MA 5 MA and 20 from the bottom position of the MACD is moving up to -3.8 from -9.4 the previous position will support the strengthening of the index today. Index day trading range is 2440-2485. Investors can look at the stock BMRI, UNTR, and PGAS.

Elite Erdhika Securities
Has the potential to continue strengthening the index after trading closed yesterday up on as much as 41.87 points (1.72%) to 2468. Based on technical analysis, the index indicates a golden cross with a range of movement of 2420-2490. Investors can look at the stock BBNI, SMCB, MEDC, and UNVR.

LQ45 Analysis 17 November 2009: Testing Resistance Index

2009-11-17T07:02:00.001+07:00

Composite stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) has the potential to continue strengthening this day. Index to test the limits resistance at 2482 levels.

Panin Securities analyst Sartono Purwoko said, the movement of the index will be supported by the strengthening of seed stock prices, such as BBRI, BMRI, UNTR, UNSP. "The technical, the index was short-term strengthening trend. The trend is formed after the 2400 level ditembusnya back, "she told Investor Daily said in Jakarta, Monday (16/11).

He said the index will reach 2482 resistance level. If this position is impregnable, the next index to the strong resistance level of 2491 before it touched 2500. The lower limit of movement of the index is at 2451 levels.

In trading yesterday, the index gained 41.87 points (1.72%) to 2468.675. The increase in stock indices sustained no word EARTH after payment 10% stake acquisition of Newmont Nusa Tenggara. Stock transaction value reached USD 5.32 trillion, with a volume of 12.03 million lots.

LQ45 Stocks Recommendation 16 November 2009

2009-11-16T08:18:00.002+07:00

Trimegah Securities
The negative sentiment surrounding the stock can result in a regional joint-stock price index (JCI) Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) down. 2380 index support level will be driving the movement of the next index. If this level is pierced, the index likely to range 2280-2380. Today, the index is still predicted consolidation in the range 2.38-2.440.

Kresna Graha Sekurindo
Index is expected to move in 2414-2436 range after the end of last week close higher above the 2423 resistance level. Even so, investors should be wary of selling pressure, given the distance of open and close the smaller the index after an increase for three consecutive days. In addition, the position of the index's stochastic at the level of 75.9. Investors can realize the action took profit (profit taking) some shares. Investors can also look at the movement of stocks BISI, AALI, UNTR.

LQ45 Analysis 16 November 2009: Quiet Index Transactions

2009-11-16T07:07:00.001+07:00

Volume and value of stock transactions Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is projected to fall early this week. Transactions can lead to quiet the stock price composite index (JCI) likely vary (mixed).

Optima Securities analyst Ikhsan Binarto said, investors are still waiting for a strong positive sentiment from within and outside the country as a driver index. "Trading in the stock market will slow, which could lead to lower indices," he told Investor Daily in Jakarta, Sunday (15/11).

He explains, there are indications of regional conditions and domestic support of strengthening the index. End of last week the Dow Jones rose 73 points or 0.72% to 10,270.47 position. This sentiment can be exploited investors as a positive catalyst activator Asian regional markets, especially Indonesia.

However, according to him, market players are still waiting for the certainty of the acquisition of shares of PT Nusa Tenggara Newmon involving two large companies, namely PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) and PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM). EARTH shares will move negative until there is certainty of this acquisition. Yet, so far the largest shares of coal producers in Indonesia are often the prime mover index.

Ikhsan said, fluctuations in world crude oil prices could also become one of the driving sentiment index. Strengthening oil prices to U.S. $ 80 per barrel will be a positive sentiment in commodity stocks driving the bourses.

Throughout the day, according to Ikhsan, the index would test the limits support 2400 and resistance 2450. Last weekend the index close higher 6.52 points to 2426.80 position. Investors can buy on weakness in the shares of PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) and PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY).

Darma Henwa Tbk

2009-11-11T13:39:00.001+07:00

Profile

Darma Henwa Tbk (the company) was established on 8 Oct 1991 based on Notaries Deed No.54, then changed to PT HWE Indonesia on Jan 2005.The Company started its commercial operations on 1993 with early main bussines in mining, and machine and equipment leasing. At Sep 5, 2005 company's name changed to PT Darma Henwa.

	Quarterly	Annual	Annual
	(Jun '08)	(2007)	(TTM)
Net Profit Margin	3.14%	3.84%	4.44%
Operating Margin	10.31%	20.28%	14.61%
EBITD Margin	-	31.63%	31.80%
Return on Average Assets	1.06%	2.13%	1.93%
Return on Average Equity	2.26%	5.86%	4.85%
Employees	1,370	-	-

Commissioners

President Commissioner	: Rini Mariani Soemarno
Independent Commissioner	: Kanaka Puradiredja

As of: 12 September 2007

Directors

President Director	: Abdurachman Kunwibowo
Director	: Gani Bustan

As of: 12 September 20 07

Address

Head Office : Menara Global Lt.26 Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav.27 Jakarta 12950

Phone	:	(021) 527 0318
Fax	:	(021) 527 0217
E-mail	:	-
Website	:	www.ptdh.co.id

ASII Report Q3 2009

2009-11-11T13:30:00.002+07:00

Dari hasil laporan keuangan Q3 2009 ASII menunjukan adanya penurunan baik dari laba bersih maupun dari pendapatan.

Pendapatan Bersih ASII pada Q3 2009 turun menjadi 70 T dari sebelumnya 73 T atau turun sekitar 4%. Sedangkan Laba bersih turun daru 7,3 T menjadi 7,1 T. Hal ini disebabkan karena ada penurunan laba anak perusahaan ASII antara lain penurunan Laba AALI karena penurunan harga CPO dan juga penurunan penjualan Kendaraan.

Sebelumnya abah cukup pesimis akan laporan keuangan ASII mengingat krisis globam mengakibatkan penurunan permintaan kendaraan bermotor. Namun ASII cukup berhasil mempertahankan labanya HANYA T URUN sekitar 5%. Sebelumna abah prediksi akan turun di atas 20% namun ASII berhasil lebih baik dari apa yang abah perkirakan.

Saat ini EPS Q3 2009 ASII adalah RP. 1755 per saham atau di Annualized menjadi Rp. 2340 per saham. Saat ini ASII dihargai sekitar RP. 31 ribu atau sekitar 13x laba. Menurut abah, masih ada potensi kenaikan menjadi 15x laba ke kisaran 35.100 yang berarti sudah cukup terbatas kenaikannya.

Tahun 2010 kemungkinan akan menjadi tahun yang lebih baik buat ASII mengingat ekonomi global juga diperkirakan akan mulai Tumbuh. Nmaun buat saat ini secara FA sih menurut abah udah mentok di 35.000 deh.

ROE ASII saat ini adalah 24% artinya ASII Bisa bertubuh 2x lipat setiap 3 tahun. DER ASII sekitar 1,3x yang menutut abah masih cukup wajar untuk perusahaan jenis konglomerasi

UNTR Report Q3/2009

2009-11-11T13:20:00.002+07:00

Pendapatan UNTR YoY hanya naik 1% dari 21m1 T pada Q3 2008 menjadi 21,3 T pada Q3 2009. Sedangkan Beban Pokok pendapatn turun daru 16,9T menjadi 16,3 T. Sehingga laba kotor pun naik dari 4,1 T menjadi 4,3 T atau naik sekitar 18%.

Laba bersih sendiri naik dari 2 T menjadi 2,9 T atau naik 45%. Sementara EPS HANYA NAIK sekitar 22% hal ini disebabkan karena UNTR ada menerbitkan saham baru (RIGHT ISSUE) sehingga EPS nya terdilusi.

EPS naik dari 719 pada Q3 2008 menjadi 891 pada Q3 2009. Atau jika di Annualized akan menjadi SEKITAR Rp. 1200 (biar abah gampang ngitung). Dengan harga saat ini UNTR di 15.000,maka UNTR dihargai 12,5x. Menurut abah masih cukup murah, sebab menurut abah wajarnya UNTR dihargai minimal PER 15x atau dengan harga 15×1200 = RP. 18.000 per saham.

Apalagi pertumbuhan laba UNTR cukup tinggi yaitu 40% dan pertumbuhan EPS 20%. Bandingkan dengan pertunmbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang hanya sekitar 4% saat ini.

ROE UNTR sendiri berkisar 30%/ Yang berarti UNTR bisa bertumbuh sekitar 2x lipat setiap 2,5 tahun. Rasio hutang UNTR (DER) sekitar 0,8x. Yang berartoi masih tergolong SEHAT. Grup Astra biasnaya dikenal dengan kondisi keuangan dan hutang yang sehat.

Semen Gresik Tbk

2009-10-11T13:42:00.001+07:00

Profile

Semen Gresik is a cement producer which was formerly fully owned by the government. On July 1995 the company shareholders meeting agreed to acquired 100% share of two state owned cement producer companies, namely PT. Semen Tonasa and PT. Semen Padang.

	Quarterly	Annual	Annual
	(Jun '08)	(2007)	(TTM)
Net Profit Margin	19.96%	18.68%	20.50%
Operating Margin	26.26%	24.97%	27.42%
EBITD Margin	-	29.56%	31.90%
Return on Average Assets	27.72%	22.40%	26.45%
Return on Average Equity	35.68%	29.28%	35.63%
Employees	6,844	-	-

Commissioners

President Commissioner	: Rizal Ramli
Vice Pres Commissioner	: Darjoto Setyawan
Commissioner	: Setia Purwaka
Independent Commissioner	: Arif Arryman
Independent Commissioner	: Muhammad Nuh
Independent Commissioner	: Marwoto Hadi Soesanto
Per 28 September 2006

Directors

President Director	: Dwi Soetjipto
Vice President Director	: Rudiantara
Director	: Cholil Hasan
Director	: Chabib Bahari
Director	: Suharto
Director	: Irwan Suarly
Per 28 September 2006

Address

Head Office : Gedung Utama Semen Gresik Jl. Veteran, Gresik 61122, East Java

Phone	:	(031) 398.1731, 398.1732
Fax	:	(031) 398.3209, 397.2264, 398.2323
E-mail	:	ptsg@sg.sggrp.com
Website	:	www.sggrp.com

Representative Office : Gedung Graha Irama, Lt. 11 Jl. HR. Rasuna Said Blok X-I Kav. 1 & 2 Kuningan, Jakarta 12950

Phone	:	(021) 526.1174, 526.1175
Fax	:	(021) 526.1176

Unilever Indonesia Tbk

2009-10-10T13:58:00.001+07:00

Profile

PT Unilever Indonesia started its operation since 1934, originally owned by Dutch Corporation (Lever`s Zeepfabrieken NV). The company produces 19 categories of consumer product lines such as soap, detergent, cooking needs and cosmetics.

	Quarterly	Annual	Annual
	(Jun '08)	(2007)	(TTM)
Net Profit Margin	17.41%	15.64%	16.34%
Operating Margin	24.45%	22.14%	22.93%
EBITD Margin	-	23.15%	24.01%
Return on Average Assets	40.66%	39.40%	37.36%
Return on Average Equity	86.33%	77.64%	86.71%
Employees	3,610	-	-

Commissioners

President Commissioner	: Louis Willem Gunning
Independent Commissioner	: Ir. Theodore Permadi Rachmat
Independent Commissioner	: Kuntoro Mangkusubroto
Independent Commissioner	: Cyrillus Harinowo
Independent Commissioner	: Bambang Subianto
As of: 31 May 2006

Directors

President Director	: Maurits Daniel Rudolf Lalisang
Director	: Graeme David Pitkethly
Director	: Josef Bataona
Director	: Surya Dharma Mandala
Director	: Debora Herawati Sadrach
Director	: Mohammad Effendi Soeparsono
Director	: Andreas Morits Egon Rompis
Director	: Bernadette Mary Wake
As of: 31 May 2007

Address

Head Office : Graha Unilever Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 15 Jakarta 12930

Phone	:	(021) 526.2112
Fax	:	(021) 526.2044
E-mail	:	unilever@indoexchange.com

Mitra Rajasa Tbk

2009-09-11T13:54:00.001+07:00

Profile

PT Mitra Rajasa was founded in April 1979 and operates as a trucking enterprise. The company started out with 20 trucks carrying cement for Indocement to all parts of Java.

	Quarterly	Annual	Annual
	(Jun '08)	(2007)	(TTM)
Net Profit Margin	30.39%	4.88%	18.25%
Operating Margin	40.37%	5.48%	21.14%
EBITD Margin	-	21.99%	40.83%
Return on Average Assets	7.60%	1.37%	7.19%
Return on Average Equity	15.49%	9.13%	21.15%
Employees	405	-	-

Commissioners

President Commissioner	: Tito Sulistio
Commissioner	: Agung Salim
Commissioner	: Roni Prananto
Independent Commissioner	: Setiadi Yahya
Independent Commissioner	: Huda Nardono Subarkah
Per 14 December 2007

Directors

President Director	: Beni Prananto
Director	: Wirawan Halim
Director	: Anton Natakoesoemah
Per 14 December 2007

Address

Head Office : Wisma LIA, 3rd Floor Jl. AM. Sangaji No. 12 Jakarta 10130

Phone	:	(021) 633.1155, 633.1725 - 29
Fax	:	(021) 633.3034
E-mail	:	miratbk@cbn.net.id

Jasa Marga Tbk

2009-09-09T19:57:00.001+07:00

Profile

PT Jasa Marga (the company) was established under its original name of PT Jasa Marga (Indonesia Highway Corporation) on Mar 1, 1978 then changed to PT Jasa Marga (Persero) based on Notaries Deed dated May 19, 1981 and the deed of establishment was approved by the the Ministry of Justice dated Mar 2, 1982. The Company’s articles of association has been amended several times, most recently by notarial deed No. 5 of Imas Fatimah, S.H., dated Apr 2, 1998, concerning UU no.1 thn 1995.

	Quarterly	Annual	Annual
	(Jun '08)	(2007)	(TTM)
Net Profit Margin	21.58%	10.58%	18.61%
Operating Margin	42.82%	38.41%	42.29%
EBITD Margin	-	49.00%	52.30%
Return on Average Assets	5.18%	2.32%	4.76%
Return on Average Equity	11.36%	6.65%	13.19%
Employees	5,572	-	-

Commissioners

President Commissioner	: Drs. Gembong Prijono, Msc
Commissioner	: Dr. Joyo Winoto
Commissioner	: Prof. Dr. Akhmad Syakhroza
Commissioner	: Ir. Sumaryanto Widayatin, MSCE
Independent Commissioner	: Mayjen (Purn) Samsoedin
Independent Commissioner	: Irjen Pol (Purn) Drs. Michael Dendron P, SH, MH

Per 09 January 2008

Directors

President Director	: Ir. Frans S. Sunito
Director	: Ir. Sarwono Oetomo
Director	: Ir. Reynaldi Hermansjah
Director	: Ir. Abdul Hadi H.S
Director	: Ir. Achmad Purwono, MBA

Per 12 November 2007

Address

Head Office : Plaza Tol Taman Mini Indonesia Indah Jakarta 13550

Phone	:	(021) 841 3630
Fax	:	(021) 841 3540
E-mail	:	jasmar@jasamarga.com
Website	:	www.jasamarga.com

Astra Agro Lestari Tbk

2009-08-07T08:09:00.001+07:00

Profile

Astra Agro Lestari, PT (the company) was established under its original name of Suryaraya Cakrawala on Oct 3 th, 1988 then changed to PT Astra Agro Lestari based on Notaries Deed dated June 23, 1997 and the deed of establishment was approved by the the Ministry of Justice dated July 2, 1997. The company was located at Jakarta. Plantation and plants was located at South Kalimantan and North Sumatera province. The subsidiaries company was located at Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Java. As of December 31, 1999 the company & its subsidiaries' plantation cover a total area of 290.621 Ha (including for Plasma project and KKPA of 45.896 Ha), with a total planted area in the amount of 199.780 Ha (including for Plasma Project and KKPA 41.327 Ha).

	Quarterly	Annual	Annual
	(Jun '08)	(2007)	(TTM)
Net Profit Margin	33.57%	34.22%	36.41%
Operating Margin	47.94%	48.66%	51.68%
EBITD Margin	-	52.25%	54.48%
Return on Average Assets	49.37%	46.10%	56.56%
Return on Average Equity	64.64%	57.96%	74.61%
Employees	20,481	-	-

Commissioners

President Commissioner	: Michael Dharmawan Ruslim
Vice President Commissioner	: Chiew Sin Cheok
Vice President Commissioner	: Maruli Gultom
Commissioner	: Gunawan Geniusahardja
Commissioner	: Simon John Mawson
Independent Commissioner	: Stephen Zacharia Satyahadi
Independent Commissioner	: Patrick Morris Alexander
Independent Commissioner	: H.S Dillon

Per 16 May 2007

Directors

President Director	: Widya Wiryawan
Vice President Director	: Tonny Hermawan Koerhidayat
Director	: Santosa
Director	: Bambang Palgoenadi
Director	: Juddy Arianto
Director	: Joko Supriyono

Address

Head Office : Jl. Puloayang Raya Blok OR-I Pulogadung Industrial District Jakarta 13930

Phone	:	(021) 461.6555 (Hunting)
Fax	:	(021) 461.6655, 461.6677
E-mail	:	investor@astra-agro.co.id
Website	:	www.astra-agro.co.id

Adaro Energy Tbk

2009-08-07T08:00:00.002+07:00

Profile

Adaro Energy , PT (the company) was established under its original name of PT Padang Karunia on Jul 28, 2004 then changed to PT Adaro Energy Tbk based on Notaries Deed dated Apr 18, 2008. The deed of establishment was approved by the the Ministry of Justice dated Apr 25, 2008.

	Quarterly	Annual	Annual
	(Jan '08)	(2007)	(TTM)
Net Profit Margin	12.14%	3.27%	-
Operating Margin	18.35%	19.15%	-
EBITD Margin	-	21.75%	-
Return on Average Assets	-	2.71%	-
Return on Average Equity	-	9.23%	-
Employees	3,386	-	-

Commissioners

President Commissioner	: Edwin Soeryadjaya
Vice President Commissioner	: Theodore Permadi Rachmat
Commissioner	: Ir Subianto
Independent Commissioner	: Djoko suyanto
Independent Commissioner	: Palgunadi T. Setyawan

Per 18 Apr 08

Directors

President Director	: Garibaldi Thohir
Vice President Director	: Christian Ariano Rachmat
Director	: Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno
Director	: Andre Johannes Mamuaya
Director	: Ah Hoo Chia
Director	: David Tendian
Director	: Alastair Bruce Grant

Per 18 Apr 08

Address

Head Office : Menara Karya, Lt 23 Jl. H.R. Rasuna Said, Blok X-5, Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950

Phone	:	(021) 521 1265
Fax	:	(021) 5794 4687
E-mail	:	corpsec@ptadaro.com
Website	:	www.ptadaro.com